(iv)
The factors set out in section 12A(2) of the Act.
[31 ]
Both Mr Campbell and Mr Unterhalter, who appeared together with Mr Maenetje on behalf of seventh respondent, located
the basis for the review in the failure of the Tribunal to take relevant factors into account in its assessment of the merger. Both
counsel submitted that the essential reasoning of the Tribunal was that, in the absence of sole or joint control of Kaya by fourth
respondent post the merger, there was no need to assess the extensive evidence which had been presented on the merits of the transaction,
all of which related to the factors for assessment as mandated in terms of section 12A. By approaching the matter in this way, the
Tribunal had made a decision which was materially influenced by an error of law.
[32 ]
As Mr Campbell submitted, section 12A requires the Tribunal to make an assessment as to the strength of competition
in the relevant market as a precusor to an assessment of the probabilities that firms in the market will behave competitively or
co-operatively after the merger. The proper test, in his view, is to ascertain whether the merger will alter the dynamics within
the market as a whole, resulting in more co-operative behaviour or less competitive behaviour. By limiting its enquiries to the determination
of control, the Tribunal disregarded all the other incentives and reasons as to why a merger may precipitate a change of behaviour
from competition to co-operation.
[33 ]
The applicant and the Commission contended that the relevant market for the merger is the Gauteng regional market for
the supply of high income listeners to advertisers on radio stations. In this market, Radio Highveld, 702 Talk Radio, Kaya FM target
similar listeners. They all service the upper LSM market in English and in Johannesburg (Gauteng). All three stations compete with
one another, they all target similar audiences in the same area, Johannesburg, and similar advertisers advertise on all three radio
stations. Accordingly, advertisers use these stations collectively and interchangeably.
[34 ]
The evidence of Mr Hodge, an expert witness called on behalf of the applicant, indicated that Radio Highveld was dominant
in the market in terms of the advertising revenue generated. Kaya is a competitor for such advertising as it has a substantial number
of LSM 6-10 listeners. Currently it attracts a number of advertisers similar to those who advertise on Highveld; 80% of Kaya’s
advertisers by revenue also advertise on Highveld and on Radio 702 74%.
[35]
Based on this information Mr Hodge concluded ‘Using advertising revenue data we show that Primedia’s stations, 702 and
Highveld are dominant and the addition of Kaya FM causes a rise in HHI that suggests a significant reduction in competition. Secondly,
we explore the competitive dynamics of this market and demonstrate that Kaya FM is particularly well placed to challenge the dominance
of Primedia’s Highveld Stereo in the relevant market. Finally, we show that the regulatory environment implies there is no
realistic possibility of entry by another independent into the market.’
[36
Mr Unterhalter submitted that the evidence derived from the market revealed it to be concentrated before the merger and that it would
become even more concentrated as a result of the merger, even if a broader definition of the market was employed to include two further
radio stations, YFM and Classic FM
[37 ]
Mr Unterhalter referred to the evidence of an expert economist who testified on behalf of the Commission, Dr Roberts.
Dr Roberts examined concentration levels both for a narrow and wider market and concluded thus: ‘The wide market is again going
through the same exercise, but adding in 5FM and YFM and computing the market shares you are seeing, the time listened to each of
the stations and computing the market shares and the HHI’s and again it doesn’t change our conclusion that the merger
at least have a substantial increase in concentration.
[38 ]
In Mr Unterhalter’s view, the concentration levels reported by Dr Roberts required the Tribunal to apply far
closer scrutiny on the likely anti-competitive effects of the merger because, as defined, the market revealed serious regulatory
barriers to entry. There was no significant countervailing power on the part of the advertisers when it came to radio advertising.
Kaya FM presented the only effective competitive constraint on Highveld, even, if only in the future. As a result of the merger,
it would be extremely difficult for advertisers to ‘buy around’ Highveld.
The Merging Party’s Case
[39 ]
Mr Gauntlett wisely conceded that an analysis of the applicable market was a necessary component to the statutorily
mandated enquiry required to be undertaken by the Tribunal. As Mr Unterhalter wryly remarked, it would have been difficult to have
adopted a different approach, given that vast record built up at hearings conducted between 15 March to 25 April 2006 which had concentrated
predominantly on contentions regarding the applicable market. Rather, Mr Gauntlett submitted that while the decision of the Tribunal
may not have been a model of jurisprudential clarity, (he correctly observed that, given the Tribunal’s extremely heavy case
load, forensic precision in the formulation of its decisions could not always be expected), a reasonable reading of the decision
illustrated that the Tribunal had examined the market as a central component in its reasoning.
[40 ]
In this connection, Mr Gauntlett referred to the following paragraph from the Tribunal’s decision.
‘[T]he co-ordination will be led by Primedia over advertising prices and that together with Kagiso Media this will enable the three
key commercial music stations in Gauteng, Highveld, Kaya and Jacaranda, to raise advertising rates without a fear of loss of custom
to remaining stations that would defeat this strategy.
Primedia disputes this. I t argues that a sufficient number of stations remain in the Gauteng area to render co-ordination ineffective, as advertisers would
switch to either the SABC stations or to other private stations such as Classic FM and YFM and so the price rise would not be sustainable.
This is extremely difficult to predict and we have not been given any information from either side of the debate to be able to take
a firm view of the probabilities. What we have to concern ourselves with is not whether the market is ripe for the possibility of
an effective co-ordination, but whether the merger will enhance or lead to such a prospect. It is by no means clear that co-ordination
is in the interests of Kagiso Media. Their prime asset is Jacaranda – more than most stations it would appear to benefit from
any upward rate move by Highveld if advertisers were to move elsewhere. To the extent that Primedia wanted post merger, to induce
Kaya into a rate high, Kagiso Media may not have an interest in moving up with them in order to benefit Jacaranda. What is less clear
because of the indirect way in which Kagiso .Media has its interests in Kaya, is its real economic stake. We know Primedia’s
economic stake at the moment is 18%. Makana in one document, in the amendment application before Icasa, reflects Kagiso’s interest
at 12.5% but in another, this is reflected as 6.2%. Whichever is correct Primedia will have a greater economic interest in Kaya,
than does Kagiso Media. Neither of them has an interest in Kaya gaining at the expense of their more valuable asset. Jacaranda and
Highveld respectively. Since Kaya on all evidence is a more likely threat to Highveld than it is to Jacaranda, it is hard to see
why Kagiso Media has an interest in co-ordinating with Primedia in the Gauteng market presently.’
[41]
In this passage, the Tribunal acknowledged that it was difficult to predict the nature of the future market and furthermore,
accepted that Highveld, Jacaranda and Kaya formed the basis of the market. Mr Gauntlett contended that this passage revealed that
the Tribunal had indeed taken account of the market, being these three radio stations in Gauteng. It had based its decision on this
foundational assumption. Mr Gauntlett also submitted that the main case against the merger had been based on the assumption that
fourth respondent was to acquire Kaya, that Kaya was a potential future competitor of Highveld and that there were concentration
problems in this potential future market to be occupied by Highveld and Kaya that would render it rational for fourth respondent
to steer Kaya away from, rather than towards Highveld in such a market. The Tribunal accepted that it was difficult to predict the
nature and scope of a future market. It then sought to engage with the possibility of effective co-ordination between the parties,
given that, at best for fourth respondent, it would have control of 24.9% of the shareholding of Kaya.
[42 ]
Mr Gauntlett also made much of the cross examination of Mr Hodge by his junior Mr Snyckers during the hearing before
the Tribunal. Mr Hodge was asked ‘if you don’t have control by the acquiring firm, there is no alteration incentive of
the acquired firm correct? to which Mr Hodge answered in the affirmative. For these reasons, Mr Gauntlett submitted that any objective
reading of the evidence placed before the Tribunal and its own assessment of such evidence as contained in its reasons, would justify
the conclusion that the merger and its effects had been properly considered and ruled upon by the Tribunal. Its finding about control
was decisive of the dispute. The Tribunal concluded: ‘If a firm cannot control another then it is unlikely to be able to alter
its behaviour to produce anti-competitive effects of a merger. This situation must be contrasted to one in which a firm can still
influence a competitive posture of another but has this influence irrespective of the merger’. The Tribunal went on to hold
that even if ‘the theories of harm that the Commission and AME contend for – Primedia is anxious to protect the pricing
power of its major asset Highveld and is anxious to prevent Kaya from emerging as a competitor for the station…..Without the
ability to exercise even disproportionate control this remains at present an unachievable goal’.
Evaluation.
[43]
The essence of the attack against the Tribunal’s decision was that it had misconstrued the mandated enquiry and
misunderstood the nature and limits of its discretion in terms of section 12A. In short, the attack upon the Tribunal’s decision
was based on the submission that it only examined whether fourth respondent acquired sole or joint control of Kaya. Having found
that this would not serve as a result of the merger, it ceased its enquiry because ‘if a firm cannot control another then it
is unlikely to be able to alter its behaviour to produce anti-competitive effects qua merger.’
[44 ]
In this regard Mr Campbell placed some emphasis upon the following exchange between the Tribunal and counsel for the
merging parties:
CHAIRPERSON Can I just ask you? But if we are with you on the question of control, we don’t even get to the examination of the competition
issues. Is that your contention?
ADV GAUNTLETT: Well I would have thought, Chair, that they are two lines of inquity for you. You would have to look at them together.
CHAIRPERSON : Why?
ADV GAUNTLETT Well I am not sure what hypothesis you are putting.
CHAIRPERSSON: The hypothesis is that if, Primedia did not acquire…if by acquiring control of NAIL, Primedia did not thereby acquire control
of Kaya, would we be getting to the competition issues at all or not?
ADV GAUNTLETT: No, we submit that that wouldn’t be so. I am sorry I misunderstood…” (my emphasis)
[45 ]
The point of this reference was that the question posed by the Tribunal fitted with the approach it ultimately adopted
to the mandated enquiry, one in which the test for control was conflated with a holistic enquiry envisaged by the Act.
[46]
In its analysis of sole control, the Tribunal found: ‘there is no evidence that Primedia can exercise sole control over Kaya
FM by virtue of section 12(2)(g).’ This provision states that a person controls a firm if it has the ability to materially
influence the policy of the firm in a manner comparable to a person who in ordinary commercial practice can exercise an element of
control as set out in the balance of the section. This section is a gateway section: it asks of the Tribunal that it examine whether
‘one or more firms directly or indirectly acquire or establish a direct or indirect control over the whole or part of the business
of another firm’. This is a first order question the answer to which is necessary to determine the existence of a merger. Only
when it has established that a merger, as defined, constitutes the transaction before the Tribunal, is there a need to examine the
factors set out in section 12A.
[47]
Section 12 defines a merger; Section 12 A deals with the competitive considerations and evaluations of a merger as defined. In this
case the Tribunal had jurisdiction, in that it was accepted that there was a merger. The reason why this was common cause between
the parties is comprehensively set out in the Tribunal’s decision. There is no need to recapitulate.
[48]
Once that determination is made, the enquiry shifts to one in terms of section 12 A of the Act. The Tribunal
however focused exclusively upon the question of control rather than dealing expressly and comprehensively with the considerations
in Section 12A. Once the merger had been determined to be the transaction, the question arose as to whether the merger was ‘likely
to substantially prevent or lessen competition’ The Tribunal failed to appreciate the distinction between the two separate
enquiries provided for in the Act.
[49 ]
This problem is not only the case with its enquiry into sole control. The Tribunal went on to consider joint control.
It concluded that fourth respondent would not be able to exercise joint control over Kaya. It assessed whether any of the other shareholders
of Kaya would have had any incentive to co-operate with fourth respondent. It concluded that the case for co-ordination had been
given less attention by the Commission and the applicant. No clear theory for the rationale for co-ordination had been suggested
It then assessed, as has been set out in this judgment, the three possible forms of coordination which had been put forward by the
Commission and dismissed each in turn. In doing so, it sought to assess the likelihood of fourth respondent exercising joint control
of Kaya together with the other shareholders in Kaya.
[50]
This entire assessment was undertaken in the context of and for the purposes of assessing the likelihood of fourth respondent exercising
joint control of Kaya together with the other shareholders. It was never a comprehensive assessment of the likelihood of co-ordination
after the merger, taking into account the relevant market, the competitive dynamics within the market and any or all of the factors
set out in section 12 A (2).
[51 ]
The question for the Tribunal was all about control. Manifestly control per se is relevant to determining whether a merger exists and thus whether the Tribunal has jurisdiction to examine the transactions in
terms of the factors set out in section 12 of the Act. Once a merger exists, the Tribunal must focus its enquiry into whether the
merger is likely to substantially prevent or lessen competition. Again the question of the nature and scope of control which fourth
respondent could exercise over Kaya is an important consideration in this part of the enquiry. But alone it is insufficient. The
mandated enquiry had to be undertaken within the broader context of the market and the dynamics within such a market.
[52 ]
An examination of the record will reveal that there was extensive evidence which covered:
(1)
the <