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Lexshell 668 Investments (Pty) Ltd and Wakefield Investments (Pty) Ltd (82/LM/Oct06) [2007] ZACT 51 (1 August 2007)

.RTF of original document

COMPETITION TRIBUNAL OF SOUTH AFRICA



Case No: 82/LM/Oct06


In the matter between:


Lexshell 668 Investments (Pty) Ltd Acquiring Firm

And

Wakefield Investments (Pty) Ltd Target Firm


Panel    :        N Manoim (Presiding Member), M Holden (Tribunal
Member) and M Madlanga (Tribunal Member)
Heard on                  :        18 April 2007 and 25 June 2007
Order issued on  :        27 June 2007
Reasons issued on        :        1 August 2007

Reasons for Decision [Non-Confidential Version]


Introduction

[1]     
In this merger between two coal firms it is common cause that in the near future, the target firm will be able to charge more for its coal than it does presently. The question for us to determine is whether this pricing opportunity comes about as a result of the merger giving it the market power to do so, as some objectors to this merger contend, or a change in supply conditions in the coal industry, as the merging parties contend.

Transaction

[2]     
The acquiring firm, Lexshell 668 Investments (Pty) Ltd (‘Lexshell’) is purchasing the entire equity in the target firm, Wakefield Investments (Pty) Ltd. Although Lexshell has been renamed Shanduka – we will to refer to it as Lexshell to avoid confusion with its shareholder which is Shanduka Resources (Pty) Ltd. Both the acquiring firm and the target firm are engaged in the coal mining industry.

[3]     
Wakefield is controlled by the diversified mining group, Metorex Limited, which holds 70% of the equity, the balance being held by its empowerment partner, Umnotho Wesizwe. Wakefield’s owns four collieries – Leeuwfontein, Banfontein, Lakeside and Middelburg Townlands, all situated in the Kendall district in Mpumulanga. See Record file 1, pages 495-498, extract from SA Coal Statistics report dated 2006.

[4]     
Lexshell is owned (70%) by Glencore Investments BV a wholly owned subsidiary of Glencore International AG (Glencore), and Shanduka Resources (Pty) Ltd (30%). Glencore is an international commodity trading firm incorporated in Switzerland. Shanduka Resources is a BEE owned mining company with at present a stake of 15% percent in Kangra Mining, also a coal mining firm, and a 30% stake in Lexshell. Shanduka previously held 40% of Kangra and 60% by Graham Beck but it in 2007 both diluted their respective stakes to15% each, selling the balance to a Spanish firm, Fenosa). Glencore owns many assets worldwide, but of relevance to this transaction is its stake in the diversified mining group Xstrata plc (presently [ ]%). There is a rather complicated explanation concerning the evolution of Glencores’ stake in Xstrata which in view of the concession that it can be considered as controlling Xstrata Plc we need not consider further. Xstrata, inter alia, owns coal mining assets in South Africa, as well as being a 21 % shareholder in the Richards Bay Coal terminal. See Commission recommendation page 15. Glencore accepts that for the purpose of this transaction it can be considered to control Xstrata. This means when we consider the increase in concentration brought about by the merger we add Wakefield’s market share to the market share of Lexshell and Xstrata. Despite this concession, we are informed there are no management overlaps in respect of Lexshell and Xstrata’s interests locally, and both account to Glencore separately.

[5]     
Lexshell itself presently owns one coal mine, Graspan which it acquired in 2006. Graspan is located in the Middelburg area contiguous to one of the Wakefield collieries, Middelburg Townlands. See 25 June transcript, page 92. We consider below the implications of the merger on the neighbouring mines. All the mines are situated in the coal rich area of Witbank/ Middelburg where 49% of South Africa’s coal is produced.



Rationale

[6]     
Lexshell is in the process of building a coal mining group. It recognises that there are assets in the market that are trading below their potential and that by acquiring them, and turning them around, it can increase the value of the assets. Wakefield has the largest of its four collieries, Middelburg Townlands Colliery, situated next door to Graspan, so for Lexshell it was a logical asset to buy. Lexshell was also looking for mines that did not have an export allocation, because if they got an allocation this would enhance the value of the assets. By export allocation we mean rights to export through the Richards Bay Coal Terminal which we explain more fully below.

[7]     
Given the trading experience of its controlling shareholder, Glencore, and the fact that the South African coal market is rapidly becoming more of an export market, it is better placed than many to achieve its ambitions. Metorex was not a pressured seller. The original offer from Shanduka was declined, but the present offer seems to have made it worth its while to sell and to use the proceeds in investing further in its other mining assets. The first indication that Metorex had received an offer from Shanduka appears in June 2005. See Metorex discovery page 274. A second offer was made in about May 2006. See Metorex discovery 288

Coal Market

[8]     
There are various types of coal whose utility is determined by the extent of their carbon content. In a recent decision we went into the technical aspects of these differences in more detail than we will in this decision. See Main Street 333 (Pty) Ltd And Kumba Resources Limited. Case No: 14/LM/Feb06 paragraphs 18-21. “Coal is a differentiated product that is categorised according to the degree of transformation of the original plant material to carbon. The ranks of coal from lowest to highest are lignite, sub-bituminous, bituminous and anthracite. Lower rank coals (lignite and sub-bituminous coals) are typically softer and are characterised by high moisture levels and low carbon content. Higher rank
coals (bituminous and anthracite) contain less moisture, more carbon and have a higher calorific value. Bituminous and Anthracite are the two types of coal mined in South Africa.
 For our purposes we are only concerned with bituminous coal because this is the type of coal mined by the merging parties. There are two types of bituminous coal – thermal (steam) and metallurgical (coking coal). The merging parties’ mines produce both types of coal. Thermal and metallurgical coal are not considered substitutes because they have different uses. As we observed in Kumba:

a.      
Thermal coal is used in power generation and also has certain industrial uses
b.       while, metallurgical coal is used in the production of iron and steel. Because of differences in calorific values, thermal coal is significantly less expensive than metallurgical coal.” See Kumba paragraph 21. In that case according to the merging parties’ economist’s report the average price for thermal coal was less than 25% of that of metallurgical coal. See the CRA International report entitled Project Pangolin: Competition Analysis, dated 6 February 2006, page 22.

[9]     
For this reason we will examine the impact of the merger on these products separately. This has also been the approach of the Commission and the merging parties.

Metallurgical coal

[10]    
Compared to thermal coal, metallurgical coal occupies a modest position in local coal production. According to SA Coal Statistic figures only 2,8 million tons of metallurgical coal were sold in the domestic market in 2005. By comparison 243 tons of thermal coal was sold. This does not obviate the need to evaluate the merger’s effect on that product market. Presently, Wakefield sells all its production of metallurgical coal to Xstrata. Accordingly, the merging parties argue the merger will have no impact on competition in the market in respect of this product. Recall that as Xstrata and Lexshell share a common controller in the form of Glencore, we treat them as part of the same concentration. This means that even if post merger Lexshell continues to supply Wakefield’s coal only to Xstrata, third parties will be no worse off in obtaining supply, than they were before the merger. But even if we do not treat Wakefield as already self- supplying the merged entity, the merger does not lead to a significant accretion in the metallurgical coal market as the figures below suggest:







Table1


Producer

Local Metallurgical Coal Sales (Low Phos)		 Market Share (%)
Anglo 640,000 13
Graspan 180,000 4
Kangra 0 0
Xstrata 0 0
Wakefield 270,000 6
Total Merged Entity 450,000 10
Anker 360,000 8
Endulwini 180,000 4
Eurocoal 100,000 2
Ingwe 720,000 15
Jensha-Eastside 180,000 4
Kumba 1,500,000 32
Total Coal 550,000 12
Woestalleen 70,000 <1
Total Coal    4,750,000 100

(Note that the premerger HHI was 1682 and the post merger HHI is 1730.)

[11]    
We therefore conclude that the merger will not lead to a substantial lessening or prevention of competition in respect of metallurgical coal, and no more on the subject need be considered in this decision

Thermal coal

[12]    
The effect of the merger on the thermal coal market requires more consideration. Again, market definition has not proved controversial. Both the merging parties and the Commission are in agreement that:

•        
The relevant product is thermal coal, of all grades, in sizes of 0 -35mm; and
•         Τηεγεογραπηιχμαρκετιστηερεσιδυαλδομεστιχμαρκετ
[13]    
This, as the language suggests, is a rather nuanced market definition and so we need to explain how we have arrived at it.

[14]    
In the industry thermal coal is subject to classification based on the size of the coals and their calorific qualities. Coals are classified in size groupings ranging from just above zero to 35mm. These groupings have different names, ranging from the smallest known as duff, through to peas, and finally small and large nuts. Until fairly recently the price quoted for coal differed depending on its size. Recently, the difference in size has ceased to matter in the export market, and thermal coal is treated as one commodity regardless of the size of the individual coals, as we consider later in this decision. For instance earlier price lists from Graspan to its clients quote different prices for grains and peas (August 2005). In September 2006 the price list gives them a uniform price. (Compare page 27 with page 29, Commission additional file.)

[15]    
The grade of coal matters. Only Grades A and B are considered exportable. Grades also have a bearing on the use of the coal in the domestic market. However the value of even a lower grade coal can be enhanced to be of export quality, through a process known as washing. The process improves the yield of the coal by removing the ash content. Washing however increases the expense of producing coal and thus the decision whether or not to wash a lower grade coal or to sell it as a lower grade coal at a lower price depends ultimately on the price that can be realised for the washed coal. If that price is sufficiently high, mines will have the incentive to wash coal and to sell it to customers who need the higher grade coal. The technical requirements of a customer’s production process will inform the grade of coal they can utilise. Not all customers need higher grade coal. Eskom, to a large extent, is able to utilise a lower grade of coal and accordingly pays much lower prices for it.

[16]    
Other domestic customers, the cement industry being one of them, require a higher grade of coal. One might think that for this reason the customer who buys export grade coal domestically would pay an export parity price. Strictly speaking this is a net export parity price as it excludes the cost of transporting the cost from the mine to the port and the related costs associated with this. If they did not, the coal company would make more by exporting the coal. However this has not been the case in South Africa until very recently. We consider below why that has been the case.

[17]    
In 2005, the last year for which we have figures available, South Africa produced 243 million tons of thermal coal. Of this figure –

•        
72 million tons (approximately 30%) were exported, with most of the exports (96%) going through the Richards Bay Coal terminal (‘RBCT’). The balance went through Maputo (1, 1 million) and Durban (1, 1 million). Of this exported amount, about 87% was exported to the European Union or what is referred to as the Atlantic Basin market. In this market South Africa is largest supplier with about 38 % of the market.
•         μιλλιοντονσωερεχονσυμεδλοχαλλψΟυτοφτηισλοχαλχονσυμπτιονμιλλιονωασχονσυμεδφορποωεργενερατιονλαργελψβψΕσκομμιλλιονανδτηεβαλανχεβψμυνιχιπαλιτιεσμιλλιονΤηενεξτμαορλοχαλχονσυμερισΣασολωηιχηινχονσυμεδμιλλιοντονσΤηεστεελινδυστρψισαλσοαλαργεχονσυμεροφστεαμχοαλμτ
[18]    
This leaves potentially 18 million tons of thermal coal for consumption by other customers in the domestic market. This is what we mean by the term the ‘residual domestic market’ which we used above. Customers in the domestic market by and large do not have tied sources of supply nor are they party to long term supply contracts. As a result they pay prices in excess of what customers such as Eskom pay, by more than 20%.

[19]    
Although the Commission and merging parties are agreed that for the purpose of analysing the effects of the merger the relevant market to be considered is this domestic residual thermal coal market, they are not in agreement on what the size of this market is and hence their respective conclusions differ on what the concentration in the market is, post merger. According to the merging parties the total size of this market is 14,9million tons and of this the merging parties account for the following:

Xstrata                    10,7 %
Graspan                    8,0%
Wakefield                 11,6 %
Total merged entity      30,3% See Commission recommendation pages 21-2

[20]    
The Commission which interrogated the figures supplied for the production of the various mines concluded that certain mines should be excluded from the amount available to the residual domestic market, for reasons that need not concern us now, and came to the conclusion that the size of this market was 13, 5 million tons. On this basis the Commission recalculated market shares and came to the following conclusion:

Xstrata                    11,8%
Graspan                    8,8 %
Wakefield                 12,7 %
Total merged entity      36,3% See Commission recommendation page 26.

[21]    
As nothing turns on the difference between these two calculations we don’t need to decide which of these calculations is the more reliable, so we will assume, for the purpose of our analysis that the Commission’s calculation is the correct one, and hence, post merger, the merged firm will have 36,3% of the relevant market. See Commission recommendation page 25 for its reasons. Some of the reasons include that firms are not suppliers of thermal coal but anthracite or are committed to contracts with customers such as municipalities.

[22]    
Coal that is exported from South Africa goes to two primary offshore markets. The first is known as the Atlantic market where South Africa is the largest producer with about 38% of this market over the past three years for which we have figures. See Xstrata figures for years 2004-2006, Lexshell discovery page 422.

[23]    
There is also the Pacific Rim market where some South African coal is exported, but unlike in the Atlantic, our geography counts against us and we are a minor player here. According to SA Coal Statistics we are the third largest seaborne coal supplier but lag at some distance behind Indonesia and Australia. See Record page 393, SA Coal statistics 2006. In addition, coal companies are trying to enter new markets such as China and India, but at the moment they are not yet of significance, because they either have sufficient domestic supplies or have more closely situated sources. Future demand may require them to source further afield, including considering South Africa.

[24]    
Traders quote prices for the different export markets based on a weekly fixing. The material is thus replete with a Richards Bay price which represents the price in dollars for sale to the export Atlantic market.

[25]    
Historically, the domestic residual price has been well below the export parity price and hence, in past decisions, we have defined the export market as a separate one from the domestic one. See for example Kumba Ordinarily if the export price was higher than the domestic one, net of transport costs, one would expect firms to export rather than sell to the domestic market. This has not happened primarily because of constraints in exporting coal from South Africa. The optimal route for exporting large amounts of coal from South Africa is through the RBCT. Whilst Durban and Maputo are alternatives for coal producers who are predominantly in the Witbank/Middelburg area, the transport costs are prohibitive and in practice very little coal has been exported through these ports.

[26]    
The South African coal industry’s ability to export is constrained by the extent of loading capacity available at Richards Bay. It is further constrained by the ability of Spoornet to transport coal from the inland to Richards Bay. To the extent that the coal industry produces coal in excess of these constraints, that surplus coal will have to be sold in the domestic market.

[27]    
RBCT is a privately owned terminal. RBCT presently has a nameplate capacity of 72 million tons. See transcript dated 18 April 2007, page 20. Its shareholders are the major coal producers who by arrangement between themselves have allocated the capacity into quotas which the respective firms are entitled to. The quotas vary in size and depend on the firm’s contribution to the project. Recently the shareholders have, following criticism that the terminal is club for the “haves”, released 4 million tons of capacity and made them available to firms with an empowerment profile. This initiative, known as Project Quattro, was phased in over a few years and it is only now the other firms have taken up near to all this capacity. It has however created a new club. Although the quotas are up for allocation annually according to Metorex, they followed the lines of the previous allocation.

[28]    
For this reason RBCT has ambitious plans to expand by another 19 mt to 91 mt by mid 2009. See transcript dated 18 April 2007, page 7. This means far more capacity will be available to other players in the industry and hence the clubby nature of RBCT is likely to be a thing of the past.

[29]    
However it is not only the capacity of RBCT that is a bottleneck. In order for coal to reach RBCT it must travel by rail. This in turn is dependant on the sole suppler of rail capacity, Spoornet, to make and maintain capacity to meet the demand. The evidence thus far is that Spoornet has not fully met these needs, although it is doing a lot to improve the position. Whilst the privately owned RBCT is confident it will reach its target capacity of 91 mt by 2009, the publicly owned Spoornet is less sanguine in its expectations. See transcript dated 18 April 2007, page 39. Unless Spoornet makes the equivalent rail capacity available, RBCT can expand all it likes, but the coal won’t reach it. Mr Van der Merwe, who is the man responsible for coal transport in Spoornet, testified that Spoornet will only have this capacity by 2011 thus two years later than the RBCT projections, unless Spoornet get contracts from coal producers before then.

[30]    
The evidence about RBCT’s expansion was given by its chief Executive officer Mr Kusani Dlamini. Mr Dlamini exuded confidence and optimism, inasmuch as Mr Van der Merwe from Spoornet was cautious and sceptical. What do we make of this contrasting outlook on the prospects for coal exports from two people equally well-placed to make an informed assessment? It is certainly correct that RBCT has been the subject of much hype in the past. Press cuttings in the record reveal how the gap between dream and reality has dogged this project previously See for instance an article entited RBCT expansion expected soon dated 5 May 2005 record, file 1 page 603, where the following appears, “The expansion to 82 million tons a year has been delayed numerous times since the announcement of the project in 2001 mainly due to differences between the various stakeholders.”. On this basis prospects for expansion may need to be much more conservative and hence RBCT may have a bottleneck for years to come. It is a curious feature of RBCT, which is privately owned by its major shareholders that it should have any incentive to expand supply and offer this expanded capacity to rivals, when a supply increase from RBCT may well impact on prices in the Atlantic Bay market. Just how sensitive the Atlantic market is to the most minor mishap at RBCT, or on the way to it, is clear from the Glencore material where incidents such as derailments are reported on weekly. Perhaps the motive for expansion is politically rather than commercially driven as emerges albeit elliptically from a speech by the Minister of Mineral and Energy where she remarks in a speech at a sod turning ceremony at Richards Bay in September 2006, that “The Coal Industry Task Team was formed …with the aim of sharing this coal terminal that at the time was for shareholders only. This happened in anticipating the implementation of the Mineral and Petroleum Products Development Act(MPRDA) as an increase for coal export infrastructure for the new BEE coal mines was anticipated as compliance with the MPRDA made sure that there are new entrants who would be able to participate in all levels in this industry.” See record file 1 page 635.The implications of the bottleneck for the domestic market are significant. If the bottleneck remains, then the domestic coal price will remain below export parity as it has in the past. The coal surplus would have to be absorbed in the local market and prices would reflect this oversupply be tending downward from export parity. In 2004 the average residual domestic price was 38% less than the net export parity price according to an economist report that was filed in the Kumba matter. See CRA International report entitled Project Pangolin; Competition Analysis, dated 6 February 2006, page 23 footnote 49. The data relied upon by CRA is for 2004.

[31]    
If the merger would enable the new entity to control supply to a degree in the domestic market then the merger might have an effect on competition. Although the merged entity will not be considered a major South African coal producer – it lags considerably behind the majors such as Anglo Coal and Ingwe – nevertheless once we consider the residual domestic market, the merged entity is a significant player with 36% of that market. Wakefield has to date supplied largely to the residual domestic market. One informant told the Commission that the merged entity will control virtually almost all of the coal used in the manufacturing process in South Africa. See record file 1 page 678, submission by [ ]. If supply constraints at RBCT do not get resolved then the acquisition of Wakefield could lead to two possible effects on the domestic market:

1.      
The merged firm could reduce supply to the residual domestic market by decreasing production to increase prices; or
2.       The merged firm could reduce supply to the domestic market by diverting production to exports, because it was in a better position to overcome supply constraints than Wakefield could on its own.
[32]    
The merging parties’ response to this theory of harm is straightforward. They, as we noted earlier, do not deny that prices may rise in the future, post merger, but argue that this outcome is unrelated to the merger, but rather as a result of structural changes going on in the coal industry. Their submission is that whether Wakefield is run by a Metorex or a Lexshell, prices will be the same. Since the merger was filed they argue the trend in prices to tend towards export parity has become even more marked.


Table 2
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